2024-07-04
28 June 2024 EUTW Forum III-Economic Growth, Political Change, and the Future of European Integration, was a resounding success.
28 June 2024 EUTW Forum III-Economic Growth, Political Change, and the Future of European Integration, was a resounding success.
The theme of the 2024 "EUTW Forum III is "Economic Growth, Political Change, and the Future of European Integration." This forum invites scholars and experts in European and international affairs, as well as political science, to present and exchange papers on significant issues related to the political and economic development of the EU. The forum was held on 28 June Friday at 10:00 AM in Room 129 of the National Central Library. It is jointly organized by the National Central Library, the European Union Centre in Taiwan, the EU Centre of Excellence, NTU and the NCCU European Union Research Centre.
Professor Chang Tai-Lin, an adjunct professor of the Department of Public Affairs at HuaFan University and convener of the EUTW Forum, host the event. The keynote speech, titled "The Current State and Prospects of Taiwan-EU Relations," was delivered by Eric Jiun-Yaw Huang ( Director General, Department of European Affairs, MOFA. Presentations were given by Professor Chung-Hung Cho (Graduate Institute in European Studies, Dept. of Diplomacy & International Relations, Tamkang University), Ambassador Ming Chong Chang (Former Representative, Bureau de Représentation de Taipei; Ambassador, Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs, MOFA), Professor Yu-Chung Shen (Department of Political Science, Tunghai University), and Director Mengjen Chang (Associate Professor / Department Chairperson, Department of Italian Language and Culture, Fu Jen Catholic University). The forum will feature Vice Chairman Lin-Long Shen (New Generation Financial Foundation) as the discussant.
Professor Chang Tai-Lin remarked on the rapid changes in the international landscape over the past two months, highlighting the intensifying U.S. presidential election and significant divergences between the U.S. and Europe regarding the support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Additionally, the announcement by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on 22 May to dissolve parliament and hold a general election on July 4 has drawn considerable attention to the development of British politics. For the European Union, both the overall economic growth and that of the Eurozone in 2024 are showing optimistic trends. However, the EU-China trade disputes are underscored by the EU Commission's announcement to impose a temporary tariff of up to 38.1% on Chinese electric vehicle imports starting July 4, which is expected to escalate tensions. Politically, the upcoming European Parliament elections and their aftermath are closely watched, with rising far-right parties, French President Emmanuel Macron's setbacks, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's momentum being key focal points. Against this backdrop, today's forum will discuss the results and implications of the European Parliament elections and the political shifts in major countries like Germany, France, and Italy, while also observing the trends in the European economy.
Director General Jiun-Yaw Huang delivered a keynote speech on "The Current State and Prospects of Taiwan-EU Relations," noting that the slogan "Made in China 2025" remains unachievable due to the authoritarian system hindering free innovation and the non-market economic system. While the U.S. views China as a strategic competitor, the EU sees China as both a cooperative partner and a systemic rival and economic competitor. Observing the increasing anti-dumping measures against China by the EU in recent years, the imposition of the highest temporary tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles is a significant example. The automotive industry is the lifeblood of Europe's economy, and the establishment of semiconductor and battery plants in Germany and France by Taiwan's TSMC and ProLogium Technology signifies the growing complementarity and mutual benefit between Taiwan and Europe. However, Chinese electric vehicles still pose a threat to the EU market. Amidst the constant threats from China, the EU recognizes that Indo-Pacific security is intertwined with European security. Taiwan will continue to seek mutually beneficial, complementary, and reciprocal economic and technological cooperation with the EU and European countries, aiming to establish an economic partnership agreement with the EU. Taiwan also hopes the EU will enhance its cooperation with Taiwan on Indo-Pacific issues and encourage European countries to jointly focus on peace and security in the Taiwan Strait.
Professor Cho Chung-Hung presented "The European Parliament Elections of June 2024: Right Rising, Left Declining," analyzed the four-day European Parliament elections held from June 6-9 across 27 EU member states. He pointed out that the focus of this election was the expansion of far-right populist parties. In the June 2024 European Parliament elections, far-right parties made gains in Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain, Greece, and Estonia. The rise of far-right nationalist forces, characterized by anti-EU and xenophobic sentiments, poses a serious threat to the EU's existence. However, the far-right ideologies in European countries are not uniform, especially regarding their stances on Russia and China. Fortunately, despite the rise of Eurosceptic forces, the election results did not show a worrying extreme rightward shift. Instead, the results highlight the EU's shortcomings in security and the economy, which will likely be the new administration's primary focus.
Ambassador Chang Ming-Chung discussed "The French Political Situation After the 2024 European Parliament Elections." He noted that the election results have caused political turmoil in France, with the far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) winning 30 seats, making it the largest single party in the European Parliament. President Emmanuel Macron's camp garnered less than half of the far-right vote, leading to the dissolution of the National Assembly on the evening of 9 June , causing all unresolved bills to be nullified and the immediate termination of all National Assembly members' duties, with their functions temporarily taken over by the Senate. The Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, who had been in office for just over five months, became the head of the caretaker government. Ambassador Chang also analyzed Marine Le Pen, the daughter of RN's founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, who has outshone her father by moderating her extreme positions, securing 21.30% and 23.15% in the first rounds of the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, respectively, to challenge Macron. This shows the steady and significant growth of far-right forces over the past 30 years. Additionally, the Socialist Party showed some progress in this European Parliament election, surpassing the traditional right-wing Republicans, indicating the traditional left's attempt to make a comeback.
Professor Shen Yu-Chong shared his personal insights on the overall state of German politics, including the background analysis of the European Parliament elections, interpretation of the election results, and observations on the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and future trends. Professor Shen believes that Germany's future political landscape will no longer be as stable as during Merkel's era, potentially leading to polarized confrontations. If the far-right continues to expand, the prospects for political polarization are worrying. There are also uncertainties regarding the resources allocated to the Indo-Pacific region, although Germany is expected to continue supporting Ukraine and viewing China as a potential competitor in the Indo-Pacific. However, the intensity may not be as robust as in the past four years. Therefore, Professor Shen suggests that Taiwan should continue to advance in AI, semiconductors, and the drone industry to deepen relationships with individual European countries, which will be a key issue for Taiwan and European countries in the future.
Associate Professor Chang Mengjen discussed "The Effects of the European Parliament Elections and the Changes in Italy," noting that in this European election, Italy's center-right parties collectively gained nearly 47% support. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the far-right Identity and Democracy group have been jointly proposing initiatives for some time, highlighting the influence of Giorgia Meloni's leadership in the ECR. Meloni declared that Italy would focus on issues related to Africa and the Mediterranean region this year, particularly immigration. It is noteworthy that while far-right parties in the European Parliament share anti-immigration stances, they have significant differences regarding the war in Ukraine. Some, like Meloni's party, want the EU to continue helping Ukraine resist Russia's invasion, while others, such as Marine Le Pen's National Rally, are more skeptical. Associate Professor Zhang believes that while the foreign policies of far-right parties in the EU may not be consistent, they are quite aligned on anti-dumping, anti-immigration, and anti-environmental issues, reflecting an anti-globalization stance.
Vice Chairman Shen Lin-Long, spoke on "Economic Prospects and Financial Outlook of the Eurozone with a Focus on CMU," pointed out that slowing inflation in the EU is beneficial for private consumption. The market predicts a GDP growth rate of 0.7% for 2024 and 1.4% for 2025. However, potential economic headwinds in the latter half of the year could stem from the U.S. presidential election. The European Central Bank implemented its first rate cut in five years this June, with officials forecasting a gradual decrease in inflation to the target in the medium term. The market expects another rate cut in September and December. Regarding the European Parliament election results, Vice Chairman Shen analyzed that the increase in far-right seats would have little substantial impact, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen likely to be re-elected. Conversely, the short-term political turmoil in France is noteworthy. The EU's Capital Markets Union (CMU) action plan, launched in September 2015, aims to enhance the EU's financial competitiveness and deserves attention.
The EUTW Forum continues to invite top experts and scholars to provide in-depth and broad observations and analyses, showcasing their outstanding research to participants. This platform allows experts from various fields, including industry, government, and academia, to engage in collective discussions and dialogues on EU affairs and developments. The forum, organized by the European Union Centre in Taiwan and collaboration with the National Central Library, has its recorded content available on the National Central Library's digital audio-visual service platform.
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